Russia’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty
The question as to whether Russia is going to maintain efforts to support the continuity of a favorable association with the US has attracted significant attention of late. The two are said to have entered a period of heightened conflict since the ending of the Cold War, one shaped by the abandonment of obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces agreement. According to Tsygankov (2019), Russia’s withdrawal from the INF treaty was triggered after the US government deployed the Aegis Ashore (a counter ballistic system) in Poland and Romania, both of which are said to have banned cruise missiles.
The US president, Donald Trump, announced the intention of the US to withdraw its obligations to the INF agreement in October 2018 if Russia continued to violate the terms of the contract. Based on Tsygankov’s (2019) analysis, the US withdrew from the INF treaty because Russia continued to deploy and test intermediate-range missiles in violation of the agreement. Back in 2014, the US termed Russia’s act of deployment of SSC-8/9M729 (a ground-launched cruise missile) an act that showed disregard for the INF treaty.
The US withdrawal from the INF treaty came after the MDR (Missile Defense Review) provides a report stating Washington’s priority to ensure the timely detection and destruction of missiles launched against the US. The document emphasizes deference as the US’s resolution in as far as defense from technically sophisticated and significant Russian international ballistics threats are concerned. The US considers Russia’s efforts to extend its associations with China’s military as an act that aggravates the extended conflict between Russia and the US. The US intelligence service released a global risk analysis report which described Russia (and its association with China) as a major threat to America’s interest in January 2019. This laid the course for the US’s withdrawal from the INF agreement that took place on February 2019. Addressing the Russian Parliament later that month, Putin stated that he would not hesitate from launching ammunition against the US if it perceived the country as a threat. Making a state-of-the-Country announcement, Putin emphasized that his country was willing to evade any confrontations with the US even though he accused Trump of setting up anti-Russian actions and of disregarding Russia’s fundamental interest.
From Tsygankov’s (2019) viewpoint, the US is yet to decide on how to handle Russia’s violation. The situation is a result of controversies brought about by Russia as a threat to the interests of the US on one side and Obama’s ammunition control legacy. The author contends that Russia has three options in dealing with the INF crisis; (1) turning to full compliance to the treaty, (2) decide to produce and deploy INF weapons, or (3) create and hide INF weapons to continue causing ambiguity about its plans. Nonetheless, the first option seems to be Russia’s best choice because it would provide ground for the restoration of a favorable association with the US, thus reducing the risk of yet another beginning of the Cold War (Tsygankov’s (2019)).
References
Tsygankov, A. P. (2019). Russia’s foreign policy: Change and continuity in national identity.
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