Assessing the Canadian employment rate

Canada’s economic goals are: political stability, reducing national debt, economic growth, increased productivity and efficiency, equitable distribution of income, price stability, and full employment.

IMF slashes Canada’s economic prospects. (Sept., 21, 2011). CTV News.

One of the Canadian economic goals is to achieve full employment, but the International Monetary Fund just revised its former predictions, assessing the Canadian employment rate as dropping rather than picking up and the nation’s economy growing slower than anticipated. In fact, the forecast seems to worsen the coming year with the economic forecast assessed as 2.1% his year and only 1.9 per cent the coming year. Moreover, both Statistics Canada, and the IMF predicted that unemployment would only increase with the IMF pronouncing that Canada’s unemployment rate will climb to about 7.6% this year and to about 7.7% in 2012. Gloomier economic forecasts, it seems, are generic to other euro-USA nations too.

Analysis of this article, however, tells me that the IMF has revised its statement several times during the past year. Economic fluctuations seem to be uncertain, and as Drummond, former chief economist at notes the truth may lie somewhere in the middle. After all, as Industry Minister Christian Paradis pointed out, the government is strenuously working on both economic growth and job creation with its Economic Action Plan and has created 600,000 net jobs since July 2009. The implied cause-effect prediction is that with current conservative government continuing their economic resolutions, unemployment will continue to plummet.

Questions: 1. What is the political allegiance of the source 2. Are they democratic therefore badmouthing the ruling conservative party by disseminating pessimistic economic predictions?

2. Tomesco, F. Canada’s dollar drops for third day on slower economic outlook. Bloomberg Business Week.

Today (September, 21st) saw Canada’s dollar fall for a third day straight as the slowing economy and pessimistic economic predictions discouraged investors for investing in Canadian higher-yield assets. The Canadian currency depreciated 0.4% to 99.63 cents per U.S. dollar. Consequently, decreased fuel demand in the U.S. brought down futures on crude oil — Canada’s most prominent asset — from 0.8% to $86.24 a barrel. Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 600 Index declined 1%.

To add to the discouraging news, Statistics Canada observed that inflation has risen from 3.1% in August a year earlier to 2.7% the previous month and Bank of Canada’s Governor Mark Carnay observed that borrowing costs might stay low even when economic progress will be assured. The weak U.S. And European economy are further impeding the recession. In short, authors of this article Cox and Liedtkas note that Canada’s economy, the world’s 10 largest, has shrunk still further to a 0.4% annualized pace in the second quarter.

Although pessimistic, I am struck by the contrast to another article that I came across in passing where the Bank of Canada’s Governor Mark Carnay who, just yesterday, was more optimistic stating that both Europe and the U.S. were climbing out of the recession, that this posed positive news for Canada, and that he saw a challenging but optimistic future for Canada ahead of time (“Europe is ‘fragile but fixable'”; Montreal Gazette). It is interesting how media can slant perspective depending on what they wish to select. Similarly, too, is it interesting to note fluctuations in opinion.

3. Canada tops ‘the land of the free’ in economic freedom. (Sept. 21. 2011) QMI Agency.

Whilst Canada may be falling in economic growth, price stability, full employment objectives, reducing national debt and decreasing gap between advantaged and disadvantaged populations, it does seem, at least to be achieving one of its economic goals according to the Fraser Institute (September, 21, 2011). Canada aims for increased economic productivity and efficiency and the Fraser Institute noted that Canadians enjoy more economic freedom than America and more than 134 other countries enjoy being, as they are, hedged in by prohibitive and restrictive fiscal constraints. Canada is no in 6th place with a score of 7.81 (out of 10), whilst the U.S. fell to 10th with a score of 7.60.

The cornerstones of economic freedom are freedom to compete, security of private property, voluntary exchange, and personal choice assuring compliant nations increased prosperity and longer lifespan. It seems as though Canada precedes the U.S. And many others in fulfilling these requirements.

Assessment, however, tells me that if one wishes to one can focus on the ‘other side of the coin’ too in that Canada’s index for economic freedom actually dropped from 7.95 last year to its present score of 7.81. The report chooses to focus on oen aspect (its positive one). Focusing on the drop may cause another observer to question whether this indicates continued predicted decrease.

4. Russell. F. (Sept. 21, 2011). Rich-poor gap speeds up in Canada. Winnipeg Free Press.

The Conference Board of Canada assessed the rich-poor gap amongst Canadians to be expanding more rapidly than it is in the U.S. The tiny minority of super rich Canadians consists of 246,000 individuals (1% of the total population), whilst Canada’s meager income rose only a small gap – $45,800 to $48,000 in the space of 33 years (1976-2009) leaving the gap between average and main income to grow.

Whilst the Conference Board is itself non-partisan being Canada’s leading independent, non-profit research organization, the reporting magazine auspiciously is partisan in its leftist perspectives. Harping on Canada’s growing inequality, it denounces the present government’s measures that include employment insurance, tax system, welfare rights, and cost of food. It would be interesting to note a political opponent’s refutation.

B Relevant open-ended questions.

All questions can take the format of that appended to article 1: Questions: 1. What is the political allegiance of the source 2. Are they democratic therefore badmouthing the ruling conservative party by disseminating pessimistic economic predictions? (Or are they echoing their particular party’s allegiance?)

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